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Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: South region

Top seed outlook: Could No. 1 Virginia exorcise last year’s allies now that the group is at full strength? Our model believes. The Cavaliers have a 49 percent probability of cracking the Final Four and a 31 percent likelihood of accomplishing what is the program’s first national title match.
With De’Andre Hunter, who wasn’t on the court this past year through UVA’s historic loss to No. 16 Maryland Baltimore County, the Cavaliers have been dominant on both ends — the only team ranking in the top five at Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and protection metrics. Once again, Tony Bennett’s package line defense is suffocating most every offensive chance and successfully turning games into stone fights. However, this year’s group is better on the offensive end and ought to breeze to the Elite Eight, where it might meet Tennessee. Due to Grant Williams along with the superbly appointed Admiral Schofield, the No. 2 Volunteers are playing their best basketball in history. We give them a 22 percent probability of reaching the Final Four.
Sneaky Final Four pick: No. 6 Villanova. Is it”sneaky” to select the team that has won just two of the past three national titles? Maybe not. But this has not been the exact same team that coach Jay Wright advised to these championships. After losing a ton of its best players from last year’s title-winning group, the Wildcats had an up-and-down year and lost five of their final eight regular-season Big East games. But they also got hot over the past week, capping a year where they still won the Big East regular-season and conference-tournament titles — and had one of the 20 best offenses in the nation based on KenPom (powered by an absurd number of 3-pointers). Our power ratings think they’re the fourth-best team at the South despite being the No. 6 seed, and they have a 5% chance of making it back into the Final Four for a third time in four seasons.
Don’t wager on: No. 4 Kansas State. Coach Bruce Weber’s Wildcats almost produced the Final Four last season, however they may find it tougher this time around. K-State comes with an elite defense (it ranks fourth in the nation according to Pomeroy’s evaluations ), but its crime is prone to struggles — and may be down its second-leading scorer, forward Dean Wade, who missed the team’s Big 12 championship loss to Iowa State with a foot injury. A brutal draw that provides the Wildcats tough No. 13 seed UC Irvine in the first round, then puts them contrary to the Wisconsin-Oregon winner in Round two, could limit their capability to advance deep into another consecutive tournament.
Cinderella watch: No. 12 Oregon. According to our model, the Ducks have the best Sweet 16 odds (24 percent) of almost any double-digit seed at the tournament, over twice that of some other candidate. Oregon struggled to string together wins for most of the regular season, and its own chances seemed sunk after 7-foot-2 phenom Bol Bol was missing for the year with a foot injury in January. But the Ducks have rallied to win eight straight games going into the championship, including a convincing victory in Saturday’s Pac-12 championship. Oregon fits a similar mould as K-State — great defense with a defendant offense — but that is telling, since the Ducks are a 12-seed and the Wildcats are a No. 4. Should they fulfill in the Round of 32, we give Oregon a 47 percent chance at the upset.
Player to watch: Grant Williams, Tennessee
The junior has come a long way from being”a fat boy with some skill.” Williams, the de facto leader of Rick Barnes’s Volunteers, has bullied the SEC within the previous two seasons, amassing two consecutive conference player of the year honors.
The Vols might only feature the very best offense of Barnes’s training career — and we’re talking about a man who coached Kevin Durant! A lot of the offensive potency could be tracked to Williams, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, who positions in the 97th percentile in scoring efficiency, based on data courtesy of Synergy Sports.
Williams possesses an old-man game you might find at a regional YMCA, a back-to-the-basket, footwork-proficient offensive assault that manifests primarily in post-ups, where he ranks in the 98th percentile in scoring efficacy and shoots an adjusted field-goal percentage of 56.1. He can get the Volunteers buckets in the waning moments of matches, too, as he ranks from the 96th percentile in isolation scoring efficiency.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Ole Miss (53 percent); No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Wisconsin (45 percent); No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati (34 percent)

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