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NASCAR Betting by the Numbers: Homestead-Miami Championship Predictions & Picks

Together with the 2018 NASCAR season coming to an end this weekend at Homestead-Miami, race fans will have their last opportunity to earn a little additional money for another 3 weeks. Not only is the race convinced to become an exciting one, the 2018 NASCAR Champion will be crowned. This means, NASCAR fans have the joy of two distinct major betting opportunities to make the most of.

While Vegas has released their odds for each driver to win the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami, I’ve compiled data that reveals slightly different results. By opting to ignore past year’s performances in this track and instead focus on season end averages based on 1.5 mile trail performances, I have created a listing of drivers which are most likely to win this weekend. This listing also allows us to evaluate each motorist’s betting return based on their Vegas odds.

Vegas Odds
Kevin Harvick: 11/4
Kyle Busch: 11/4
Kyle Larson: 3/1
Martin Truex Jr.: 6/1
Joey Logano: 10/1
Brad Keselowski: 15/1
Chase Elliott: 20/1
Denny Hamlin: 20/1
Clint Bowyer: 25/1
Kurt Busch: 25/1
Eric Jones: 30/1
Aric Almirola: 40/1
Ryan Blaney: 40/1
Austin Dillon: 80/1
Jimmie Johnson: 80/1
Daniel Su??rez: 100/1
1.5 Mile Finish Averages
Kyle Busch: 5.4 (2) ^1
Joey Logano: 7.25 (5) ^3
Martin Truex Jr.: 8.9 (4) ^1
Kevin Harvick: 9.3 (1) v3
Kyle Larson: 9.6 (3) v2
Brad Keselowski: 9.7 (6) —
Austin Dillon: 10.4 (14) ^7
Eric Jones: 10.6 (11) ^3
Aric Almirola: 12.6 (12) ^3
Ryan Blaney: 12.7 (13) ^3
Clint Bowyer: 13 (9) v2
Kurt Busch: 13 (10) v2
Chase Elliott: 13.9 (7) v6
Denny Hamlin: 14.8 (8) v6
Jimmie Johnson: 17.6 (15) —
Daniel Su??rez: 19.25 (16) —

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