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BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $25k prize, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is by far the safest play on the board and she has 100+ point upside down. She is a lock in my money matches this week and that I actually don’t really see the way she loses. I think a submission would be Moras’ best opportunity but she isn’t very capable of finding the fight to the floor, so that I see her becoming dominated on the feet before the ref steps in. She’s by far my favourite play at the 9k range and she is a -750 on the gambling line. I like playing with it safer in cash games and I believe she is a safe triumph this week.
GPP drama of the week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is an easy one for me this week and he’ll be the chalk of this week. I will still be overweight on Merab though. His style is exactly what we want on DraftKings. He’s got a nonstop speed and he shoots takedowns frequently. He has 22 landed takedowns in his initial 3 UFC fights and that is his best route to success in this matchup too. Even with 2 losses on his album from these 3 fights, he averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This isn’t my GPP drama of the week since I know he is going to win, I just know IF he wins that he will score highly, and that he should easily reach value on an $8.6k price tag.
Underdog drama of the week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I have to pick Cowboy as the dog of the week. His struggles are always action packed and the winner of this fight will definitely be about the first-place lineup. Especially if it is Cowboy. He almost always scores over 100 points in his wins and he has 5-rounds to use here. I really don’t find a situation where he wins and does not end up about the $25k lineup. I’ll be overweight on Cowboy this week, but this is an all-in fight for me. If Cowboy isn’t in a one of my lineups, then you are going to see Iaquinta there. I will be heavier on the Cowboy side though and I think he gets the work done by entry.
Fade of the week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be quite surprised to see Theodorou about the 1st place lineup this week. I would be amazed to see him get even 10x his $8k price tag and that’s why I have zero lineups with him this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins earlier that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is just bad for DraftKings. He is going to have to knock Brunson out whether he is going to score highly and he isn’t a power puncher. I think you are better off carrying Elias by TKO on the gambling line in +870. I don’t see any reason to invest in him this week at GPPs since he doesn’t possess the ceiling we would like to win that large $25k. I believe he’s fine in cash games as a 65-point win would not kill us there. However he’s an easy fade of the week for me Saturday.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and also provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 71-45 for +233.79u (+$23,379) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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