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BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 1 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card at Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate competitions for us with this Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k goes to 1st place, also there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that final competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 50 or so entries at that $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into money games. With that said, let us get to some plays I like too as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the background, in my view. I think he’ll be the fighter anywhere this battle moves, and he must dominate. I like locking that triumph in my cash game and I think he’s a good shot at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I do expect him to become popular in tournaments so if you want to fade the ownership there and try to be contrarian, I would definitely want some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is tough so that he can last all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque might only score from the 80s which won’t win any GPPs. But, we can use an ~80-point triumph in money games since we just need to beat half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week due to the chances. A bit more than a week ago he had been a -255 favorite and that is what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he is only -155 and all the value is on Ngannou at his 7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he’ll kill off close to half the field. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his possession to really go down the longer his betting line reduces and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He does have a 0-point floor, therefore I don’t care for him in cash game, but for GPPs we need boom or float to attempt and reach this 1st place prize.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of this week. He’s $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he is only a +125 underdog. I believe he has a good shot of winning this battle and I am choosing him to get his hands raised. I expect this to be an extremely close battle, but I think Fili is going to probably be the fighter striking at the greater pace and that’s precisely what I think gets it done for him on the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili with 100+ point upside but we don’t really need that in his $7.4k price label. I believe he has a great shot at getting at 10x, so he’s playable in most formats for me.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I think she will lose, but I think have difficulty seeing her on the $20k lineup in her salary. I enjoy the $9k range a great deal greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings using their grappling-based game programs. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC introduction, but this is because she did use grappling there. I don’t see her doing that in this game because I think Evans-Smith has got the edge on the floor and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee will win this battle, then she is going to have to do it on the feet and I don’t see her with a high ceiling without a finish. The sole reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it will create your lineup contrarian, but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 57-34 for +188.13u (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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