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BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 135 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend we have a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and that I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC debut so it’s always nice once you’re already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions are not the greatest, but there is still a great deal of cash to be obtained. I’ll be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my cash lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is filled with action and his three UFC battles have been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those kinds of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games because we can lock in a win and get all the points at the very best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the business done in cash games and we will get over 100 points with this battle. But with that win locked in, we just have to find 3 other people we feel great about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to want to pay $9.5k to get a guy like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to get a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I think that’s what most folks will do and that is what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we’ll get him at a somewhat lower possession due to his massive salary, and he’s got a very good shot at getting a 1st round triumph. If he can get a 1st round KO afterward he’ll have 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is totally faded, then I think you should find some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he’s a shell of his older self. I believe Barberena does pick up an end in this struggle so I will throw him some GPPs and hope he’s under owned.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy value play of the week. Currently, Fili is the betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it’s available so that I presume he’s in play in all formats. He will be popular in tournaments together with all the value we’re becoming on him, but I am willing to eat that chalk and that I don’t want to get burned by completely fading that value. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic chance at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I would favor MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we do not need a massive score from Fili so any win will likely do just fine. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he is the easy underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my own personal bias but I will not have Drew Dober in some of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has just proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to strike. I believe that this will be a striking battle also and I think it will be closer than the chances indicate. At $8.9k I think we’ll require a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and I don’t see that happening. Should you think Dober can find a KO, then you should be playing him. I’ll only be paying up someplace because I’m not sure he could find that complete and I wouldn’t be shocked if he even lost the struggle. I will say I never seem to utilize Dober in DraftKings, so I could get burned again but I will stick with my Dober evaporate and he will be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my private strategies & suggestions, and also my selection outlook for every single fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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